Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4576
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4576 · DAL → MSY
departs 11:36 AM CT · arrives 1:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 24%
Fri 11/20 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.