Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4630 · MCO → SRQ
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 9:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 37%
Sat 11/21 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.