Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4638 · LAS → BUR
departs 4:07 PM PT · arrives 5:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 25%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 47%
Fri 11/20 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.