Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4648
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4648 · MCO → MEM
departs 7:34 PM ET · arrives 8:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 29%
Wed 11/18 31%
Thu 11/19 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.