Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4653 · MSY → SAN
departs 5:51 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 34%
Wed 11/18 37%
Thu 11/19 48%
Fri 11/20 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MSY are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.