Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4812 · BNA → PIT
departs 5:03 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 34%
Fri 11/20 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.