Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4827 · LGA → BNA
departs 11:29 AM ET · arrives 12:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 11/14 25%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 27%
Wed 11/18 26%
Thu 11/19 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.