Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4838 · PHX → SAT
departs 9:21 AM MT · arrives 12:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 11/14 11%
Sun 11/15 17%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.