Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4869 · LGB → SMF
departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 7:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 20%
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 33%
Fri 11/20 41%
Sat 11/21 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
LGB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.