Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4876 · MCO → SDF
departs 2:18 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 16%
Wed 11/18 19%
Thu 11/19 39%
Fri 11/20 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.