WN 4876 · SDF → BWI

departs 3:06 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4876 · SDF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?