Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4903
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4903 · FAT → SAN
departs 4:41 PM PT · arrives 6:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 82%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.