Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 506 · ELP → DEN
departs 4:41 PM MT · arrives 6:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 44%
Fri 11/20 40%
Sat 11/21 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.