Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 824
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 824 · DAL → SMF
departs 8:52 PM CT · arrives 10:28 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±6 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.