Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 830 · MCO → ORF
departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 9:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.