Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 839 · AUS → ONT
departs 10:23 AM CT · arrives 11:27 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 19%
Thu 11/19 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.