Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 867
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 867 · OAK → PHX
departs 6:11 PM PT · arrives 9:17 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 11/15 47%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 27%
Thu 11/19 46%
Fri 11/20 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.