Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5779 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

YX 5779 · JFK → PIT

departs 7:31 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5779 · JFK → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?