Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5236 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

9E 5236 · DTW → ORF

departs 9:44 PM ET · arrives 11:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5236 · DTW → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?