Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

AA 2474 · DFW → RSW

departs 5:25 PM CT · arrives 9:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,367 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2474 · DFW → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?