Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
B6 511 · JFK → LAS
departs 10:22 AM ET · arrives 12:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Mon 11/16 15%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 24%
Thu 11/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.