Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
DL 2831 · ATL → SDF
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 11/16 9%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 14%
Thu 11/19 22%
Sat 11/21 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.