Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1572
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
F9 1572 · SAN → PHX
departs 11:02 AM PT · arrives 1:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 37%
Sat 11/21 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.