Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
F9 2309 · BWI → MCO
departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 9:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 23%
Sat 11/21 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 25 kt
Ceiling 600 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.