Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
F9 2868 · MCO → SJU
departs 2:21 PM ET · arrives 6:31 PM AT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SJU that day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.