Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4401
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
F9 4401 · LAS → SFO
departs 12:32 PM PT · arrives 2:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 89%
Mon 11/16 78%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 51%
Thu 11/19 50%
Fri 11/20 46%
Sat 11/21 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.06 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.