Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
MQ 3381 · PHX → MTY
departs 12:48 PM MT · arrives 4:24 PM CST
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Mon 11/16 16%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 16%
Thu 11/19 20%
Fri 11/20 15%
Sat 11/21 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MTY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MTY?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MTY
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
MTY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.