Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3446
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
MQ 3446 · BOS → SDF
departs 2:03 PM ET · arrives 4:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Mon 11/16 10%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 16%
Thu 11/19 18%
Fri 11/20 17%
Sat 11/21 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.