Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5242
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
OO 5242 · IAH → MTY
departs 8:27 PM CT · arrives 10:16 PM CST
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 17%
Thu 11/19 21%
Fri 11/20 16%
Sat 11/21 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MTY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MTY?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MTY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.