Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6031
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
PT 6031 · ORF → PHL
departs 7:11 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Mon 11/16 23%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 26%
Sat 11/21 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.