Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1125 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

UA 1125 · ORD → SMF

departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 6:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1125 · ORD → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?