Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1206 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

UA 1206 · MBJ → EWR

departs 3:14 PM EST · arrives 7:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MBJ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1206 · MBJ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?