Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1483 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

UA 1483 · DEN → MTJ

departs 7:28 PM MT · arrives 8:37 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at MTJ more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MTJ?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at MTJ that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MTJ (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1483 · DEN → MTJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to MTJ?