Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 365 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

UA 365 · PHL → IAH

departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 10:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 365 · PHL → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?