Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 17

UA 638 · SFO → HNL

departs 6:28 PM PT · arrives 10:09 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HNL that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

HNL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 638 · SFO → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?