Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1764
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 1764 · AUS → JAX
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 3:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 23%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 16%
Sat 11/21 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at JAX that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.