Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 1793 · FAT → LAS
departs 5:55 AM PT · arrives 7:16 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from FAT are usually not late
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.