Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 1869 · AUS → SAN
departs 7:20 AM CT · arrives 8:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.