Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 1951 · BUR → LAS
departs 7:48 PM PT · arrives 9:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 11/16 38%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 19%
Thu 11/19 45%
Fri 11/20 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.