Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 209 · LAS → FAT
departs 7:55 AM PT · arrives 9:16 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 14%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.