Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 2131 · LAS → OAK
departs 2:38 PM PT · arrives 4:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Mon 11/16 46%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 46%
Sat 11/21 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.06 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.