Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2167
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 2167 · SAN → FAT
departs 9:20 AM PT · arrives 10:44 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 15%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at SAN that day
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at FAT that day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into FAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.