Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 2278 · LAS → IND
departs 11:28 AM PT · arrives 6:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Mon 11/16 34%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 44%
Fri 11/20 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±15 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from LAS are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.