Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 2436 · PHX → BUR
departs 10:16 AM MT · arrives 10:44 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Mon 11/16 15%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 16%
Thu 11/19 24%
Fri 11/20 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.