Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2687
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 2687 · PHX → TUL
departs 6:21 PM MT · arrives 9:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 11/16 28%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 35%
Thu 11/19 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.