Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 282
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 282 · PHX → SDF
departs 1:30 PM MT · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/16 33%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.