Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3239
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 3239 · OAK → SAN
departs 6:32 PM PT · arrives 8:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 77%
Mon 11/16 56%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 33%
Thu 11/19 51%
Fri 11/20 44%
Sat 11/21 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.