Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 3493 · PHX → SAN
departs 3:10 PM MT · arrives 3:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16 46%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 36%
Thu 11/19 52%
Fri 11/20 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.