Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3727
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 3727 · SAN → PHX
departs 3:37 PM PT · arrives 5:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 11/16 46%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 32%
Thu 11/19 50%
Fri 11/20 23%
Sat 11/21 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.