Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 10, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 17
WN 3912 · LAS → TUS
departs 8:00 AM PT · arrives 10:28 AM MT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sun 11/15 9%
Mon 11/16 11%
Tue 11/17
Wed 11/18 8%
Thu 11/19 10%
Fri 11/20 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.